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[期刊速览]《财贸经济》2019年第9期  
2019年09月08日 10:02 来源:中国社会科学网 作者:《财贸经济》编辑部 字号

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·目 录·

 

  庆祝新中国成立70周年专题

  1.何德旭 冯 明:新中国货币政策框架70年:变迁与转型

  2.杨志勇:新中国财政政策70年:回顾与展望

  3.刘金全 张 龙:新中国70年财政货币政策协调范式:总结与展望

  4.郭玉清 毛 捷:新中国70年地方政府债务治理:回顾与展望

 

  5.苏嘉胜 王 曦:宏观审慎管理的有效性及其与货币政策的协调

  6.李华民 吴 非:银行规模、贷款技术与小企业融资

  7.邓忠奇 宋顺锋 曹清峰:中国城市规模之谜:一个综合分析框架

  8.宣 烨 陆 静 余泳泽:高铁开通对高端服务业空间集聚的影响

  9.杨芷晴 张 帆 张友斗:竞争性领域政府补助如何影响企业创新

  10.鲁 於 冀云阳 杨翠迎:企业社会保险为何存在缴费不实——基于财政分权视角的解释

 

  11.“新时代中国服务业发展与开放研究”成果发布会暨研讨会在京举行

 

  ·扩展目录·

 

  1.何德旭 冯明:新中国货币政策框架70年:变迁与转型

  【内容提要】本文从货币创造机制、货币政策目标、货币政策工具、货币政策规则、货币政策传导渠道等五个维度,系统地回顾梳理新中国70年来货币政策框架的历史变迁,并着重探讨当前货币政策框架的转型特征。当前,基础货币创造机制正在发生结构性变化,货币信用体系日趋复杂;货币政策多元目标之间易出现冲突,中介目标由数量型向价格型过渡;数量型工具与价格型工具并存,多种新型结构性工具的有效性仍有待实践检验;货币政策规则以削峰填谷式的相机决策为主,尚未形成明确的量化规则;货币政策传导以银行信贷渠道为主,传导不顺畅的问题仍较为突出。最后,结合当前国内外经济金融形势的重大变化,分析了我国既有货币政策框架面临的四个方面的突出挑战,并分别从上述五个维度探讨未来货币政策框架的转型方向。

  【关 键 词】货币政策框架 货币创造机制 货币政策目标 货币政策工具 货币政策规则

  【作者简介】何德旭,中国社会科学院财经战略研究院院长、研究员;冯明,中国社会科学院财经战略研究院副研究员、博士。

  【基金项目】国家社会科学基金青年项目“宏观债务与高杠杆的形成机制及对策研究”(17CJY054)。

  China's Monetary Policy Framework in the Past 70 Years:1949-2019

  HE Dexu  FENG Ming

  Abstract: In this paper,we review the historical transformation of China's monetary policy framework in a systematical way in the last 70 years since the founding of the People's Republic of China,from the five dimensions of money creation mechanism,monetary policy objective,monetary policy instrument,monetary policy rule and monetary policy transmission channel. We then focus on the current policy framework and propose its major characteristics:the base money creation mechanism is undergoing fundamental structural changes and the credit system is becoming more and more complex;the multiple objectives of the monetary policy are prone to conflicting with each other; quantitative tools and price-based tools coexist,while the   validity of various new structural tools still needs to be tested;the monetary policy decisions are mainly discretionary and clear quantitative rules have not been formed;the monetary policy transmission is still dominated by bank credit channels,and the transmission to real economy is partially blocked. In the end,we outline the four major challenges facing China's existing monetary policy framework and put forward policy recommendations for its further transformation in the future.

  Keywords: China's Monetary Policy Framework,Money Creation Mechanism,Monetary Policy Objective,Monetary Policy Instrument,Monetary Policy Rule

  【责任编辑】无明

  2.杨志勇:新中国财政政策70年:回顾与展望

  【内容提要】本文对新中国70年财政政策进行回顾和展望。70年来的财政政策可分为四个阶段,即1949—1952年以恢复国民经济为主要目标的市场型财政政策;1953—1978年计划型财政政策;1978—2012年适应经济转型需要的财政政策;2012年以来适应新时代需要的财政政策。70年财政政策的经验表明,财政政策目标的选择需要准确认识国家作用;财政政策成功的基础是尊重财政规律;财政政策需要超越宏观经济稳定目标,为工业化和现代化提供保障;财政赤字需要在积极防范财政风险背景下理解;财政政策的实施常与财税改革相伴随;财政政策的财力基础需要多渠道夯实;财政政策的选择需充分考虑外部因素的影响。面向未来,财政政策应立足于服务国家治理体系和国家治理能力现代化建设,服务国家参与人类命运共同体的构建;应重新理解财政政策知识,为财政政策选择提供支持;应和其他政策目标相互协调。本文还从政府可支配财力和现金流的视角讨论未来财政政策的空间与挑战,并梳理了财政政策作用需要面对的传导机制难题。

  【关 键 词】财政政策 中国财政 财税改革 宏观经济调控

  【作者简介】杨志勇,中国社会科学院财经战略研究院副院长、研究员。

  【基金项目】中国社会科学院财经战略研究院创新工程A类项目“加快建立现代财政制度”(2018CJY01-A002)。

  China's Fiscal Policies in the Past Seven Decades: Characteristics by Stage,Experience and Prospects

  YANG Zhiyong

  Abstract: The paper combs through the fiscal policies adopted by China in the past 70 years,summarizes their characteristics in different stages and experience,and looks into the future fiscal policy options for China. The fiscal policy history since the founding of the People's Republic of China can be divided into four stages. Stage 1:1949-1952,the market-oriented fiscal policy aimed to restore the national economy; Stage 2:1953-1978,the planned fiscal policy;Stage 3:1978-2012,the fiscal policy accommodating the needs of economic transformation;and Stage 4:2012-present,the fiscal policy accommodating the needs of the new era. A look at the above fiscal policy history draws the following conclusions: 1 .The goal of the fiscal policy should be set based on a correct understanding of the role of the state; 2. For the fiscal policy to work,it must respect the fiscal rules; 3. The fiscal policy must aim higher than the goal of macroeconomic stability and provide guarantees for industrialization and modernization; 4. The government should understand fiscal deficits while proactively guarding against fiscal risks; 5. The implementation of the fiscal policy must go hand in hand with the fiscal reform; 6. The funding for the fiscal policy must come from diverse sources; 7. The choice of a fiscal policy should fully consider external impacts. The future fiscal policy should revolve around serving state governance and its modernization,and serving China's contribution to the community of shared future for mankind. We should update our knowledge on the fiscal policy to support the decision-making for the choice of fiscal policy. The goal of fiscal policy should be set in coordination with that of other policies. Moreover,from the perspective of the government's disposable revenue and cash flow,the paper probes into the space and challenges for future fiscal policy and sorts the problems of the transmission mechanism that might prevent the fiscal policy from working.

  Keywords:  Fiscal Policy,China's Public Finance,Fisical Reform,Macroeconomic Regulation

  【责任编辑】汀兰

作者简介

姓名:《财贸经济》编辑部 工作单位:

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