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[期刊速览]《国际经济评论》2019年第4期(总第142期)
2019年09月04日 21:08 来源:中国社会科学网 作者:《国际经济评论》编辑部 字号

内容摘要:

关键词:

作者简介:

  ·目录·

  1.杨盼盼 常殊昱 熊爱宗:危机后全球失衡的进展与国际协调思路

  2.邹静娴 申广军:金融危机后“长期停滞”假说的提出与争论

  3.熊婉婷 常殊昱 肖立晟:IMF债务可持续性框架:主要内容、问题及启示

  4.缪延亮 谭语嫣:从此岸到彼岸:人民币汇率如何实现清洁浮动?

  5.孔元:身份政治与世界秩序的演变

  6.苏庆义:中国是否应该加入CPTPP?

  7.管涛 王霄彤:中国服务(旅游)贸易逆差扩大:是资本外逃还是经济再平衡?

  8.王璐瑶 葛顺奇:投资便利化国际趋势与中国的实践

  智库观察

 

  ·扩展目录·

 

  1.杨盼盼 常殊昱 熊爱宗:危机后全球失衡的进展与国际协调思路

  【内容提要】本文首先梳理了危机后全球失衡的新进展,全球失衡整体大幅缓解,中国为危机后全球经济再平衡做出了重要贡献,主要发达失衡国的调整则相对有限。然而,在全球失衡渐趋缓和的同时,失衡的政策协调压力却在上升,全球失衡再度成为2019年G20的核心议题。本文指出,当下政策讨论中采取的经常账户合意值的外部失衡评议方法存在诸多问题,针对各国的失衡评估报告也存在不一致。继而,全球失衡的政策协调方式应有所转变,需统合流量失衡和存量失衡的相互作用机制,促进各国有序协调,防范因外部失衡无序下降或波动以及因外部失衡过度调整带来的全球经济、贸易和金融风险。

  【关键词】全球失衡 外部失衡评估法 流量失衡 存量失衡 政策协调

  Global Rebalancing and International Coordination in the Post-Crisis Era

  Yang Panpan, Chang Shuyu and Xiong Aizong

    This article reviews the latest progress in easing global imbalances in the post-crisis era. There has been significant decline in aggregated imbalance. China has made significant contribution to global rebalancing while the developed countries have failed to substantially resolve their imbalance problems. As the global imbalance has moderated, however, the coordination pressure has intensified. Global imbalance has once again come to the center stage at this year’s G20 meeting. This article pointed out several problems regarding the External Balance Approach (EBA), which estimates a country’s Current Account Norm, and the external reports on concerned countries have showed some inconsistencies. To improve the global imbalance policy coordination, it is necessary to incorporate the management of stock and flow imbalance, promote orderly coordination among different countries, and avoid posing risks to global economic growth, trade and finance.

  2.邹静娴 申广军:金融危机后“长期停滞”假说的提出与争论

  【内容提要】2008年金融危机爆发后,全球经济复苏之缓、之难都远超预期。在此背景下,美国前财政部长萨默斯重提“长期停滞”假说。在“长期停滞”假说中,均衡实际利率为负是核心,总需求不足是症结,财政刺激政策是药方。对于此番经济表现出的长期疲弱,学术界还有许多不同观点,如:超级债务周期、全球储蓄过剩、流动性陷阱等,争论的焦点主要集中于对原因的总结、对债务问题的认识以及对未来均衡实际利率走势的判断上。本文的一大目标就是梳理当前有关的学术争论:争论什么,为何争论,有何依据?厘清这些问题可为下一步凝聚共识、政策协调奠定基础。

  【关键词】长期停滞 实际利率 债务 增长

  Secular Stagnation in the Post-Crisis Era

  Zou Jingxian and Shen Guangjun

    Against the backdrop of slower-and harder-than-expected global economic recovery in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis, former US Secretary of Treasury Larry Summers re-proposed the hypothesis of secular stagnation. The hypothesis is characterized by negative natural interest rate, with the problem ascribed to the demand side, and the solution goes for fiscal stimulus. As for the prolonged sluggish economic performance, the academic circle has come with many other views, like debt super-cycle, global saving glut and liquidity trap, with disagreements mainly focused on the cause of the recession, the perceptions of debt and estimation of future interest rates. This article aims to summarize the related debates, i.e., what the debates are about and why researchers have failed to reach an agreement. The clarification of those debates can lay a foundation for future consensus and policy coordination.

作者简介

姓名:《国际经济评论》编辑部 工作单位:

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