【关键词】年龄结构 老龄化 间接估计 出生高峰 计划生育
70 Years of China: The Changes of Population Age Structure and the Trend of Population Aging
Based on the population censuses and 1% sampling surveys data, this paper uses the indirect estimation methods to reconstruct the changes of population age structure for 70 years of China. The main conclusions and insights are as follow. (1) During the past 70 years, Chinese population has experienced both dramatic increases and decreases. The changes in the first 35 years are mainly determined by social-economic situation, while those in the second 35 years are influenced jointly by strict family planning policy and social-economic conditions. (2) Compared with the population changes after the three years of natural disaster, the nature of baby boom in response to the universal two-child policy in 2015 is completely different. Yet, they both result in a baby boom for about two years. (3) The recent 35 years witnessed low fertility and decreasing number of new births, which strengthens the trend of population age structure. It makes that the proportion of elderly population will eventually exceed 30%, and will remain at high levels in the future.
【摘 要】文章基于1982～2015年人口普查和1%人口调查数据，计算了所有普查年5年跨县迁移量，从1982年到2010年再到2015年，人口总迁移量从2 863万升到1.46亿，再下降到1.32亿。其中，户籍迁入的永久迁移从2 420万下降到1 976万后，继续下降到1 432万；离开户籍县的临时迁移从443万增长到1.26亿，然后微降至1.18亿；临时性的务工迁移从不足200万增长到7 033万后，再下降至5 707万。文章发现，人口迁移已实现从计划性的永久迁移向市场性的临时迁移的转变，对市场转型、城镇化和工业化起到了促进作用。同时人口迁移实现了从个人行为向家庭行为的转变。与2000年相比，2010年劳动力峰值受高校扩招影响，从5.9%上升到9.5%，已婚青壮年的迁移率比10年前大幅提高，并取代未婚青年人群成为迁移的主流。此外，由累积值计算的2010年儿童留守率高达62.8%，中青年妇女净留守率为21.7%，表明市场化后风险的提高迫使家庭居住分离以劳动力迁移的方式来分散风险。一旦克服风险约束后，回流增加较快。文章建议，政府在政策上营造宽松环境，以保障未来迁移向优质化、家庭化和长期稳定的方向发展。
【关键词】人口迁移 经济转型 中国
Trends of Migration in China in Four-decades of Economic Reform: An Analysis based on Censuses and 1% National Population Surveys
Based on the data of Chinese censuses and 1% national population surveys from 1982 to 2015, the paper calculates the five-year volume of inter-country migration in all census/survey years. From 1982 to 2010 and then to 2015, the total volume of inter-country migration increased from 28.63 million to 146 million and then fell to 132 million, among which permanent(hukou) migration decreased from 24.20 million to 19.76 million and then to 14.32 million, temporary migration (out of the county of hukou) increased from 4.43 million to 126 million and then slightly decreased to 118 million, and temporary labor migration increased from less than 2 million to 70.33 million and then dropped considerably to 57.07 million. The paper finds that, with the shift of the importance from permanent to temporary migration, migration in China has completed its market transition in the four decades, during which migration plays a key role in the nation’s market transformation, urbanization and industrialization. Meanwhile, there has been also a transition which shifts migration behaviors from individuals to families. Such a transition was strongly evident in changes in migration schedule from 2000 to 2010, including consistent rate enhancement over 70% among married adults between 26 and 40 years old, which was so significant that married migrants have replaced unmarried ones as the majority. In terms of cumulated migration rates, the deficit ratio of the children (0-12) to parents’ (24-36) was 0.628, implying then 62.8% of migrants’ children were left behind. Moreover, the deficit ratio for wives aged 24-45 years old was 0.2172, indicating a considerable portion of spousal residence separation incurred. This shift of migration behaviors to families is largely a result of risk enhancement in privatization, which forces small rural families to split and use labor migration as a strategy to spread risks across sectors. Huge social and human costs incurred were often neglected in favor of positive effects of remittances. With the level of education much enhanced among new generations, the paper suggests that the government creates a more relaxed environment and formulate new policies to enhance both the quality and the stability of migration by focusing on the transfer of human capital through family settlement.
【关键词】城市规模 拥挤效应 高等教育人口 城市化 面板数据
A Study on the Effects of Higher Education Population on Urbanization: Empirical Evidence from 287 Cities at and above the Prefecture Level in China
Zhou Qiliang Fan Hongzhong
Based on the panel data of 287 cities at and above the prefecture level in China during 1999-2015, this paper examines the effects of higher education population on urbanization. The results show that, (1) because of the congestion effects, it is not a simple positive linear relationship between higher education and urbanization. The direct effect of higher education population on urbanization is positive in small and medium-sized cities, but it is significantly reduced or even turns into negative in large and ultra-large cities. The indirect effect of higher education population on urbanization is positive, but it decreases with the expansion of city scale. (2) From the view of regional disparity, compared with the cities in the central and western regions, the effects are more prominent in the eastern cities. The paper urges policy initiatives to improve the positioning of urban development, encourage college graduates to work in small and medium-sized cities, control the congestion effects of large and ultra-large cities strictly, and distribute higher education resources rationally, in order to give full play to the positive role of higher education population on urbanization.
【关键词】人口流动 人力资本 城市规模差距
Population Mobility, Human Capital and Urban Size Gap
Gao Chunliang Li Shantong
By distinguishing specialized and general human capitals, this paper brings the structure of human capital in Ramsey utility function, and finds that urban convenience affects the transformation of accumulated human capital, the location effect in human capital upgrading, and the cumulative effect of enlarging urban scale gap. Based on the sample data of 272 urban units from 2003 to 2016, this paper finds that the location strategy targeting at achieving stock growth and structural optimization is the main reason for the enlarging urban population size gap. Urban convenience promotes the transformation of human capital accumulation, and enlarges the gap of urban scale. It argues that the improvement of urban convenience plays an important role in urban development. The requirements of human capital growth and structure optimization can be satisfied by improving the service system oriented by human capital, improving the environment, and enhancing the convenience of medium-sized cities, which will be conductive to changing decision about location and promoting the regional coordinative development.
【关键词】就业 技能结构 制造业 服务化 转型
Manufacture Servitization and the Dynamics of Employment Skill Structure
Manufacture servitization, which leads the optimization of employment skill structure, is the key to solve the imbalance between employment skill structure and industrial structure. This paper analyzes the mechanism that manufacture servitization affects employment skill structure, by taking the moderating effect of productive service efficiency and trade liberalization into consideration. The results show that, generally speaking, manufacture servitization promotes the optimization of employment skills structure mainly through enhancing the status of enterprise in the GVC. The effect is heterogeneous by manufacturing factor intensity and input service. Producer services efficiency and trade liberalization have an important adjustment effect. Along with the improvement of producer services efficiency and the development of trade liberalization, the role of manufacture servitization in optimizing employment skills structure will be strengthened gradually.
6.赵 明 米海杰 王晓军：中国人口死亡率变动趋势与长寿风险度量研究
【关键词】人口死亡率 变动趋势 长寿风险 度量模型
Study on the Trend of Mortality Rate and Measurement of Longevity Risk in China
Zhao Ming and Others
Using the statistics of mortality rate from 1950 to 2018, this paper studies the changing trend of mortality rate in China, and establishes a stochastic mortality model to measure the longevity risk faced by China’s pension system. The results show that,(1) China’s crude mortality rate declined rapidly from 1950 to 1981. The pace of decline increased first, then decreased with age, and there is little difference in gender. (2) China’s crude mortality rate declined steadily from 1981 to 2005. The rate of reduction in infant mortality has increased greatly, and that for the males aged 15-59 has slowed down significantly, which has resulted in a lagged-behind life expectancy for males as compared with females. (3)From 2005 to 2015, the crude mortality rate increased, which is resulted from the changes in population age structure. Meanwhile, the age-specific mortality rate still maintained a downward trend. The mortality rate of the population over 60 years of age declined faster than before. (4) In population mortality prediction, the robust model takes the trend of mortality change into considerstion, and hence enhances the validity of prediction. (5) The robust model has lower modeled risk in measuring longevity risk and is more conservative in longevity risk estimation. Results from this model can retain more risk reserve for the pension system.
7.刘涛 陈思创 曹广忠：流动人口的居留和落户意愿及其影响因素
【关键词】居留意愿 落户意愿 流动人口 社会融合 珠三角
Migrants’ Intentions of Settlement and Hukou Transfer and Their Determinants
Liu Tao and Others
Based on the data of the Dynamic Monitoring Survey of Floating Population in 2017, this paper compares the intentions of settlement and hukou transfer of floating population by using the case of Pearl River Delta. It finds that significantly fewer migrants are willing to transfer their hukou as compared with those who are going to settle down. This gap can be attributed mainly to their individual life stages, land-related assets in the origin and social integration in destination cities. Migrants aged 40 and above have a higher willingness to get local hukou in order to get access to urban welfare and public services. The impossibility of this prospect would probably lead to an immediate return migration. The land-related assets back at hometown offered economic security, which encourages them to work and live in cities more stably. The difficulty of owning house in the urban areas and the homestead in rural areas contribute to decrease migrants’ willingness to transfer hukou. The impacts of social integration on settlement and hukou transfer are different. The economic integration significantly enhances the settlement intention, whereas the social and psychological integration are more effective in promoting the hukou transfer intention.
【关键词】家庭化迁移 代际流动性 机制影响
The Impact of Family Migration Experiences on Intergenerational Mobility
Song Xuguang He Jiajia
The paper examines the impact of family migration experiences on the intergenerational mobility by using CFPS data. The results show that individuals with family migration experiences have higher intergenerational mobility, which is achieved indirectly through affecting offspring’s degree of effort and their life environment. In particular, after family migration, individuals are working harder, as manifested in the increase of the years of education and average working hours, all of which have positive effects on intergenerational mobility. The impacts of environment on intergenerational mobility include not only the positive effect of Mandarin fluency, but also the negative effect from impaired trust. From the views of the hukou, the impact of family migration on migrants with agricultural hukou is greater than that on migrants with non-agricultural hukou, which reflects that individual who is living in the rural areas may be more likely to fall into the intergenerational low-income trap. The paper suggests that we should further implement preferential hukou policy on settlement, impel equalization of public services (education, healthcare), improve the migrants’ trust, and accelerate the new urbanization process.
【关键词】川滇彝族聚居区 贫困家庭 代际传递 人力资本
A Study on the Status and Influence Factors of Yi Ethnic’s Poverty Intergenerational Transmission
Wang Zhuo Shi Yue
Yi ethnic minorities are mainly distributed in Tibetan-Yi-Corridor and Wumeng Destitute Areas. The characteristics of Yi poverty are wide in range, deep in degree, long-lasting and intergenerational transmitted. Intergenerational transmission of poverty is an extreme form of chronic poverty. Based on the of Yi Chronic Poverty Questionnaire Survey in 2018, this paper analyzes the current situation, influence factors and mechanism of Yi ethnic’s poverty intergenerational transmission. It finds that the incidence of poverty intergenerational transmission is very high in communities concentrated with Yi minorities. Human capital of two generations significantly affects the intergenerational transmission of poverty. The stock of human capital adversely affects the intergenerational transmission of poverty. Poverty of parents can transmit negative human and economic capital to their children, and these kinds of capital will form the children’s capital. Non-agricultural and part-time employment of the offspring can also increase the incidence of poverty intergenerational transmission.
10.孙中伟 刘一伟 范长煜：最低工资施行过程中的“地板工资制”及其后果——基于2017年广东省企业—员工匹配调查数据的分析
【摘 要】文章利用2017年广东省2 000多家企业和5 000多名员工的匹配调查数据，分析了最低工资施行过程中形成的“地板工资制”现象及其后果。研究表明，最低工资并非形同虚设，而是形成了一种广泛存在的非正式的薪酬制度——“地板工资制”，导致员工工资增长对最低工资的高度依赖及一线员工严重超时加班，因此，暂缓最低工资调整将可能带来员工工资增长的停滞。文章认为，在缺乏一种行之有效的工资增长机制的背景下，及时调整最低工资依然是保障工人权益的主要手段；未来随着最低工资调整步伐的放缓必须设法提高劳动者的谈判能力，培育工资增长的市场机制，落实劳资双方的集体协商制度。
【关键词】最低工资标准 地板工资制 广东省 企业—员工匹配调查数据
The “Floor Wage System” and Its Consequences in the Implementation of the Minimum Wage:
Based on Guangdong Enterprise-Employee Matching Survey Data in 2017
Sun Zhongwei and Others
This paper analyzes the phenomenon of “floor wage system” and its consequences in the process of minimum wage implementation by using the Enterprise-Employee Matching Survey Data with more than 2000 enterprises and 5000 employees from Guangdong Province in 2017. The research shows that the minimum wage has formed a widespread informal salary standard, namely“floor wage system”. It leads to a high dependence of the employees’ wage growth on the minimum wage and severe overtime working. Therefore, if local governments postpone improvement of minimum wage, employees’ wage growth is likely to be stagnant. This paper points out that improving minimum wage is still the main means to protect workers’ rights in the absence of an effective wage growth mechanism. Additionally, as the minimum wage adjustment will slow down in the future, local governments must make efforts to improve workers’ negotiating ability, cultivate the market mechanism for wage growth and implement the collective bargaining system between employers and employees.