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[期刊速览]《中国人口科学》2019年第3期
2019年07月02日 14:29 来源:中国社会科学网 作者:《中国人口科学》编辑部 字号

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    1.王广州:新中国70年:人口年龄结构变化与老龄化发展趋势

  【摘 要】基于人口普查和1%人口抽样调查数据,文章采用人口年龄结构间接估计方法对新中国成立70年来人口变化历史进行定量分析,得到以下主要结论和启示:(1)在过去70年里,前35年主要是社会经济发展影响中国人口快速增减和大起大落,后35年是严格生育政策和社会经济发展共同促进快速人口转变和低生育率的长期趋势;(2)从三年困难时期的人口变动过程看,尽管2015年全面两孩出生堆积与三年困难时期的补偿生育性质完全不同,但堆积集中释放或补偿生育时间非常相似,估计均为两年左右;(3)后35年形成的低生育率和出生人口规模减少的态势,将进一步强化人口年龄结构的变动趋势,使未来老年人口比例超过30%,并持续处于高位。

  【关键词】年龄结构 老龄化 间接估计 出生高峰 计划生育

  【作 者】王广州,中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所,研究员。

  70 Years of China: The Changes of Population Age Structure and the Trend of Population Aging

  Wang Guangzhou

  Based on the population censuses and 1% sampling surveys data, this paper uses the indirect estimation methods to reconstruct the changes of population age structure for 70 years of China. The main conclusions and insights are as follow. (1) During the past 70 years, Chinese population has experienced both dramatic increases and decreases. The changes in the first 35 years are mainly determined by social-economic situation, while those in the second 35 years are influenced jointly by strict family planning policy and social-economic conditions. (2) Compared with the population changes after the three years of natural disaster, the nature of baby boom in response to the universal two-child policy in 2015 is completely different. Yet, they both result in a baby boom for about two years. (3) The recent 35 years witnessed low fertility and decreasing number of new births, which strengthens the trend of population age structure. It makes that the proportion of elderly population will eventually exceed 30%, and will remain at high levels in the future.

  【责任编辑】朱犁

  2.马忠东:改革开放40年中国人口迁移变动趋势——基于人口普查和1%抽样调查数据的分析

  【摘 要】文章基于1982~2015年人口普查和1%人口调查数据,计算了所有普查年5年跨县迁移量,从1982年到2010年再到2015年,人口总迁移量从2 863万升到1.46亿,再下降到1.32亿。其中,户籍迁入的永久迁移从2 420万下降到1 976万后,继续下降到1 432万;离开户籍县的临时迁移从443万增长到1.26亿,然后微降至1.18亿;临时性的务工迁移从不足200万增长到7 033万后,再下降至5 707万。文章发现,人口迁移已实现从计划性的永久迁移向市场性的临时迁移的转变,对市场转型、城镇化和工业化起到了促进作用。同时人口迁移实现了从个人行为向家庭行为的转变。与2000年相比,2010年劳动力峰值受高校扩招影响,从5.9%上升到9.5%,已婚青壮年的迁移率比10年前大幅提高,并取代未婚青年人群成为迁移的主流。此外,由累积值计算的2010年儿童留守率高达62.8%,中青年妇女净留守率为21.7%,表明市场化后风险的提高迫使家庭居住分离以劳动力迁移的方式来分散风险。一旦克服风险约束后,回流增加较快。文章建议,政府在政策上营造宽松环境,以保障未来迁移向优质化、家庭化和长期稳定的方向发展。

  【关键词】人口迁移 经济转型 中国

  【作 者】马忠东,香港科技大学大学,副教授。

  Trends of Migration in China in Four-decades of Economic Reform: An Analysis based on Censuses and 1% National Population Surveys

  Ma Zhongdong

  Based on the data of Chinese censuses and 1% national population surveys from 1982 to 2015, the paper calculates the five-year volume of inter-country migration in all census/survey years. From 1982 to 2010 and then to 2015, the total volume of inter-country migration increased from 28.63 million to 146 million and then fell to 132 million, among which permanent(hukou) migration decreased from 24.20 million to 19.76 million and then to 14.32 million, temporary migration (out of the county of hukou) increased from 4.43 million to 126 million and then slightly decreased to 118 million, and temporary labor migration increased from less than 2 million to 70.33 million and then dropped considerably to 57.07 million. The paper finds that, with the shift of the importance from permanent to temporary migration, migration in China has completed its market transition in the four decades, during which migration plays a key role in the nation’s market transformation, urbanization and industrialization. Meanwhile, there has been also a transition which shifts migration behaviors from individuals to families. Such a transition was strongly evident in changes in migration schedule from 2000 to 2010, including consistent rate enhancement over 70% among married adults between 26 and 40 years old, which was so significant that married migrants have replaced unmarried ones as the majority. In terms of cumulated migration rates, the deficit ratio of the children (0-12) to parents’ (24-36) was 0.628, implying then 62.8% of migrants’ children were left behind. Moreover, the deficit ratio for wives aged 24-45 years old was 0.2172, indicating a considerable portion of spousal residence separation incurred. This shift of migration behaviors to families is largely a result of risk enhancement in privatization, which forces small rural families to split and use labor migration as a strategy to spread risks across sectors. Huge social and human costs incurred were often neglected in favor of positive effects of remittances. With the level of education much enhanced among new generations, the paper suggests that the government creates a more relaxed environment and formulate new policies to enhance both the quality and the stability of migration by focusing on the transfer of human capital through family settlement.

  【责任编辑】朱犁

  3.周启良 范红忠:高等教育人口对城市化的影响研究——来自中国287个地级及以上城市的经验证据

  【摘 要】文章基于1999~2015年中国287个地级及以上城市的面板数据,考察高等教育人口对城市化的影响。结果发现:(1)由于拥挤效应的存在,高等教育人口与城市化之间并非呈简单的正向线性关系。在小型、中型城市高等教育人口对城市化的直接影响为正,而在大型和特大型城市正影响明显降低;高等教育人口对城市化的间接效应均为正,但随着城市规模的扩大而不断降低。(2)与中西部地区城市相比,高等教育人口对城市化所产生负向的直接影响、正向的间接影响及其减弱的幅度在东部地区城市表现得更为突出。文章认为,应做好城市发展定位,采取优先鼓励高校毕业生进入小型和中型城市工作、严格控制大型和特大型城市的拥挤效应、合理分布高等教育资源等措施,以便充分发挥高等教育人口对城市化的正向作用。

  【关键词】城市规模 拥挤效应 高等教育人口 城市化 面板数据

  【作 者】周启良,江西外语外贸职业学院国际商务学院,副教授;范红忠,华中科技大学经济学院,教授。

  A Study on the Effects of Higher Education Population on Urbanization: Empirical Evidence from 287 Cities at and above the Prefecture Level in China

  Zhou Qiliang Fan Hongzhong

  Based on the panel data of 287 cities at and above the prefecture level in China during 1999-2015, this paper examines the effects of higher education population on urbanization. The results show that, (1) because of the congestion effects, it is not a simple positive linear relationship between higher education and urbanization. The direct effect of higher education population on urbanization is positive in small and medium-sized cities, but it is significantly reduced or even turns into negative in large and ultra-large cities. The indirect effect of higher education population on urbanization is positive, but it decreases with the expansion of city scale. (2) From the view of regional disparity, compared with the cities in the central and western regions, the effects are more prominent in the eastern cities. The paper urges policy initiatives to improve the positioning of urban development, encourage college graduates to work in small and medium-sized cities, control the congestion effects of large and ultra-large cities strictly, and distribute higher education resources rationally, in order to give full play to the positive role of higher education population on urbanization.

  【责任编辑】朱犁

  4.高春亮 李善同:人口流动、人力资本与城市规模差距

  【摘 要】文章在区分专用性和通用性人力资本的基础上,将人力资本结构纳入拉姆齐效用函数,得出城市便利性影响人力资本积累的转换效应、人力资本结构优化的区位效应和城市规模差距扩大的累积效应。文章利用2003~2016年272个城市样本进行实证研究,结果发现,为实现存量增长和结构优化的人力资本区位决策是城市人口规模差距扩大的主要原因;城市便利性促进人力资本积累的转换,并使城市规模差距持续扩大。文章认为,提升城市便利性是城市发展的重要方向,完善人力资本导向的服务体系、营造人力资本积累变现的良好环境、增强中等城市便利性等措施可满足人力资本存量增长和结构优化需求,有助于改变区位决策,促进区域协调发展。

  【关键词】人口流动 人力资本 城市规模差距

  【作 者】高春亮,南京财经大学,副教授;李善同,国务院发展研究中心发展战略和区域经济研究部,研究员。

  Population Mobility, Human Capital and Urban Size Gap

  Gao Chunliang Li Shantong

  By distinguishing specialized and general human capitals, this paper brings the structure of human capital in Ramsey utility function, and finds that urban convenience affects the transformation of accumulated human capital, the location effect in human capital upgrading, and the cumulative effect of enlarging urban scale gap. Based on the sample data of 272 urban units from 2003 to 2016, this paper finds that the location strategy targeting at achieving stock growth and structural optimization is the main reason for the enlarging urban population size gap. Urban convenience promotes the transformation of human capital accumulation, and enlarges the gap of urban scale. It argues that the improvement of urban convenience plays an important role in urban development. The requirements of human capital growth and structure optimization can be satisfied by improving the service system oriented by human capital, improving the environment, and enhancing the convenience of medium-sized cities, which will be conductive to changing decision about location and promoting the regional coordinative development.

  【责任编辑】朱犁

  5.罗军:制造业服务化转型与就业技能结构变动

  【摘 要】文章分析了制造业服务化对就业技能结构的影响机制,考虑了生产性服务效率和贸易自由化的调节效应,并利用中国产业层面数据进行检验。结果发现:总体来看,制造业服务化主要通过提升企业价值链地位促进就业技能结构优化,制造业服务化对就业技能结构的影响存在制造业要素密集度异质性和服务投入异质性,生产性服务业效率和服务贸易自由化在制造业服务化对就业技能结构影响中存在重要调节作用。随着生产性服务业效率的提升和服务贸易自由化进程的推进,制造业服务化对就业技能结构的优化作用逐渐增强。

  【关键词】就业 技能结构 制造业 服务化 转型

  【作 者】罗军,温州大学商学院,副教授。

  Manufacture Servitization and the Dynamics of Employment Skill Structure

  Luo Jun

  Manufacture servitization, which leads the optimization of employment skill structure, is the key to solve the imbalance between employment skill structure and industrial structure. This paper analyzes the mechanism that manufacture servitization affects employment skill structure, by taking the moderating effect of productive service efficiency and trade liberalization into consideration. The results show that, generally speaking, manufacture servitization promotes the optimization of employment skills structure mainly through enhancing the status of enterprise in the GVC. The effect is heterogeneous by manufacturing factor intensity and input service. Producer services efficiency and trade liberalization have an important adjustment effect. Along with the improvement of producer services efficiency and the development of trade liberalization, the role of manufacture servitization in optimizing employment skills structure will be strengthened gradually.

  【责任编辑】李玉柱

  6.赵 明 米海杰 王晓军:中国人口死亡率变动趋势与长寿风险度量研究

  【摘 要】文章利用1950~2018年人口死亡率数据,研究中国人口死亡率变动特征,并以此为基础建立随机死亡率模型,度量中国养老金体系面临的长寿风险。研究结果表明:(1)1950~1981年中国人口粗死亡率快速下降,人口死亡率降低速度随年龄呈现先递增、后递减的趋势,且性别间的差异较小。(2)1981~2005年中国人口粗死亡率平稳下降,0岁人口死亡率下降速度大幅提高,15~59岁男性人口死亡率降低明显减速,导致平均预期寿命逐渐低于女性。(3)2005~2015年人口粗死亡率上升主要受人口年龄结构变化的影响,年龄别死亡率仍保持下降趋势,且60岁及以上人口死亡率下降速度较前两阶段显著提升。(4)在人口死亡率预测方面,稳健模型考虑了死亡率变动趋势,提高了长期预测的合理性。(5)在长寿风险度量方面,稳健模型具有较低的模型风险,对长寿风险的度量更加保守,能够为养老金体系留存更充足的风险资本。

  【关键词】人口死亡率 变动趋势 长寿风险 度量模型

  【作 者】赵明,首都经济贸易大学金融学院,讲师;米海杰,中国劳动和社会保障科学研究院,助理研究员;王晓军,中国人民大学统计学院,教授。

  Study on the Trend of Mortality Rate and Measurement of Longevity Risk in China

  Zhao Ming and Others

  Using the statistics of mortality rate from 1950 to 2018, this paper studies the changing trend of mortality rate in China, and establishes a stochastic mortality model to measure the longevity risk faced by China’s pension system. The results show that,(1) China’s crude mortality rate declined rapidly from 1950 to 1981. The pace of decline increased first, then decreased with age, and there is little difference in gender. (2) China’s crude mortality rate declined steadily from 1981 to 2005. The rate of reduction in infant mortality has increased greatly, and that for the males aged 15-59 has slowed down significantly, which has resulted in a lagged-behind life expectancy for males as compared with females. (3)From 2005 to 2015, the crude mortality rate increased, which is resulted from the changes in population age structure. Meanwhile, the age-specific mortality rate still maintained a downward trend. The mortality rate of the population over 60 years of age declined faster than before. (4) In population mortality prediction, the robust model takes the trend of mortality change into considerstion, and hence enhances the validity of prediction. (5) The robust model has lower modeled risk in measuring longevity risk and is more conservative in longevity risk estimation. Results from this model can retain more risk reserve for the pension system.

  【责任编辑】李玉柱

  7.刘涛 陈思创 曹广忠:流动人口的居留和落户意愿及其影响因素

  【摘 要】文章以珠江三角洲为例,利用2017年流动人口动态监测调查数据对流动人口的居留落户意愿进行比较研究,发现珠三角地区流动人口的落户意愿远低于居留意愿,二者影响因素的差异主要体现在个体生命历程、流出地资产和流入地社会融合等方面。40岁以上的流动人口对城市公共服务的迫切需求导致其落户意愿强烈,落户无望将导致其快速返乡;承包地的收入保障功能使流动人口能够安心在城市工作生活,城市购房的困难则迫使其为保留农村宅基地而不愿落户城镇;社会融合特征对居留和落户意愿的影响存在差异,经济层面的融合显著提升居留意愿,社会心理层面的融合则对落户意愿的提升作用更强。

  【关键词】居留意愿 落户意愿 流动人口 社会融合 珠三角

  【作 者】刘涛,北京大学城市与环境学院,研究员;陈思创,北京大学城市与环境学院,硕士研究生;曹广忠,北京大学城市与环境学院,教授。

  Migrants’ Intentions of Settlement and Hukou Transfer and Their Determinants

  Liu Tao and Others

  Based on the data of the Dynamic Monitoring Survey of Floating Population in 2017, this paper compares the intentions of settlement and hukou transfer of floating population by using the case of Pearl River Delta. It finds that significantly fewer migrants are willing to transfer their hukou as compared with those who are going to settle down. This gap can be attributed mainly to their individual life stages, land-related assets in the origin and social integration in destination cities. Migrants aged 40 and above have a higher willingness to get local hukou in order to get access to urban welfare and public services. The impossibility of this prospect would probably lead to an immediate return migration. The land-related assets back at hometown offered economic security, which encourages them to work and live in cities more stably. The difficulty of owning house in the urban areas and the homestead in rural areas contribute to decrease migrants’ willingness to transfer hukou. The impacts of social integration on settlement and hukou transfer are different. The economic integration significantly enhances the settlement intention, whereas the social and psychological integration are more effective in promoting the hukou transfer intention.

  【责任编辑】李玉柱

  8.宋旭光 何佳佳:家庭化迁移经历对代际流动性的影响

  【摘 要】文章利用中国家庭追踪调查数据,检验个体随家庭迁移的经历对家庭代际流动性的影响。研究结果显示,具有家庭化迁移经历的个体代际流动性明显更强,并主要通过影响子代的努力程度和生活环境两个渠道间接完成。具体而言,随家庭迁移后的个体努力程度有显著提升,突出表现为其受教育年限和平均工作时长增加,能明显改善代际流动性;而环境因素对迁移个体代际流动性的影响既包括因普通话熟练程度提高等因素导致的正向效应,也包括因信任度受损等因素导致的抑制效应。从户籍分组看,家庭化迁移对农业户籍群体代际流动性的影响大于非农业户籍群体,侧面反映出农村未家庭化迁移群体更易陷入代际低收入传递的陷阱。鉴于家庭化迁移经历对提高代际流动性的整体正向作用,文章建议进一步改革城市落户政策,妥善安排随迁子女的教育、医疗等公共服务,提升迁移群体对迁入地的信任感,促进新型城镇化进程。

  【关键词】家庭化迁移 代际流动性 机制影响

  【作 者】宋旭光,北京师范大学统计学院,教授;何佳佳,北京师范大学统计学院,博士研究生。

  The Impact of Family Migration Experiences on Intergenerational Mobility

  Song Xuguang He Jiajia

  The paper examines the impact of family migration experiences on the intergenerational mobility by using CFPS data. The results show that individuals with family migration experiences have higher intergenerational mobility, which is achieved indirectly through affecting offspring’s degree of effort and their life environment. In particular, after family migration, individuals are working harder, as manifested in the increase of the years of education and average working hours, all of which have positive effects on intergenerational mobility. The impacts of environment on intergenerational mobility include not only the positive effect of Mandarin fluency, but also the negative effect from impaired trust. From the views of the hukou, the impact of family migration on migrants with agricultural hukou is greater than that on migrants with non-agricultural hukou, which reflects that individual who is living in the rural areas may be more likely to fall into the intergenerational low-income trap. The paper suggests that we should further implement preferential hukou policy on settlement, impel equalization of public services (education, healthcare), improve the migrants’ trust, and accelerate the new urbanization process.

  【责任编辑】李玉柱

  9.王卓 时玥:彝族贫困代际传递现状及影响因素研究

  【摘 要】彝族主要分布在藏羌彝走廊与乌蒙山集中连片特困地区,彝族贫困具有面广、程度深、持续时间长且代际传递的特点。贫困代际传递是长期贫困的极端形式。文章利用2018年彝族长期贫困调查数据分析彝族贫困代际传递的现状、影响因素及代际传递机制。结果发现,彝族聚居区贫困代际传递发生率较高。两代人的人力资本均显著影响贫困代际传递,人力资本存量越低,贫困代际传递发生的可能性越高。贫困父辈的人力和经济负资本通过代际传递累积形成子代的人力和经济负资本,从而导致贫困代际传递。子代非农就业和兼业行为也会增加贫困代际传递的发生率。

  【关键词】川滇彝族聚居区 贫困家庭 代际传递 人力资本

  【作 者】王卓,四川大学社会发展与西部开发研究院,教授;时玥,四川大学中国西部边疆安全与发展协同创新中心,博士研究生。

  A Study on the Status and Influence Factors of Yi Ethnic’s Poverty Intergenerational Transmission

  Wang Zhuo Shi Yue

  Yi ethnic minorities are mainly distributed in Tibetan-Yi-Corridor and Wumeng Destitute Areas. The characteristics of Yi poverty are wide in range, deep in degree, long-lasting and intergenerational transmitted. Intergenerational transmission of poverty is an extreme form of chronic poverty. Based on the of Yi Chronic Poverty Questionnaire Survey in 2018, this paper analyzes the current situation, influence factors and mechanism of Yi ethnic’s poverty intergenerational transmission. It finds that the incidence of poverty intergenerational transmission is very high in communities concentrated with Yi minorities. Human capital of two generations significantly affects the intergenerational transmission of poverty. The stock of human capital adversely affects the intergenerational transmission of poverty. Poverty of parents can transmit negative human and economic capital to their children, and these kinds of capital will form the children’s capital. Non-agricultural and part-time employment of the offspring can also increase the incidence of poverty intergenerational transmission.

  【责任编辑】朱犁

  10.孙中伟 刘一伟 范长煜:最低工资施行过程中的“地板工资制”及其后果——基于2017年广东省企业—员工匹配调查数据的分析

  【摘 要】文章利用2017年广东省2 000多家企业和5 000多名员工的匹配调查数据,分析了最低工资施行过程中形成的“地板工资制”现象及其后果。研究表明,最低工资并非形同虚设,而是形成了一种广泛存在的非正式的薪酬制度——“地板工资制”,导致员工工资增长对最低工资的高度依赖及一线员工严重超时加班,因此,暂缓最低工资调整将可能带来员工工资增长的停滞。文章认为,在缺乏一种行之有效的工资增长机制的背景下,及时调整最低工资依然是保障工人权益的主要手段;未来随着最低工资调整步伐的放缓必须设法提高劳动者的谈判能力,培育工资增长的市场机制,落实劳资双方的集体协商制度。

  【关键词】最低工资标准 地板工资制 广东省 企业—员工匹配调查数据

  【作 者】孙中伟,华东理工大学社会学系,副研究员;刘一伟,武汉大学社会保障研究中心,博士研究生;范长煜,华中师范大学社会学系,讲师。

  The “Floor Wage System” and Its Consequences in the Implementation of the Minimum Wage:

  Based on Guangdong Enterprise-Employee Matching Survey Data in 2017

  Sun Zhongwei and Others

  This paper analyzes the phenomenon of “floor wage system” and its consequences in the process of minimum wage implementation by using the Enterprise-Employee Matching Survey Data with more than 2000 enterprises and 5000 employees from Guangdong Province in 2017. The research shows that the minimum wage has formed a widespread informal salary standard, namely“floor wage system”. It leads to a high dependence of the employees’ wage growth on the minimum wage and severe overtime working. Therefore, if local governments postpone improvement of minimum wage, employees’ wage growth is likely to be stagnant. This paper points out that improving minimum wage is still the main means to protect workers’ rights in the absence of an effective wage growth mechanism. Additionally, as the minimum wage adjustment will slow down in the future, local governments must make efforts to improve workers’ negotiating ability, cultivate the market mechanism for wage growth and implement the collective bargaining system between employers and employees.

  【责任编辑】朱犁

  

作者简介

姓名:《中国人口科学》编辑部 工作单位:

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