首页 >> 经济学 >> 动态
[期刊速览]《数量经济技术经济研究》2018年第6期
2018年06月20日 13:46 来源:中国社会科学网 作者:《数量经济技术经济研究》编辑 字号

内容摘要:

关键词:

作者简介:

  

  ·目录·

  1.“互联网+”对中国制造业发展影响的实证研究[王可,李连燕]

  2.金融发展与产业结构转型[易信,刘凤良]

  3.最低工资制度如何影响中国的产业结构?[刘贯春,吴辉航,刘媛媛]

  4.中国P2P网贷平台效率差异及成交量影响因素研究[姜琪]

  5.中国国有和民营制造业企业生产效率对比研究[张涛,刘宽斌,熊雪]

  6.地方政府债务风险非线性先导预警系统的构建与应用研究[洪源,王群群,苏知立]

  7.人民币短期均衡汇率测算方法及应用研究[刘洋]

  8. 基于投入产出表的隐含问题计算方法辨析[傅智宏]

  9.基于完全信息的测算信用等级违约概率的新方法[张金宝]  

  

  ·扩展目录·

 

  1.“互联网+”对中国制造业发展影响的实证研究

  [作者]王可,山东大学经济学院;李连燕,中央财经大学会计学院

  [关键词]“互联网+” 制造业 创新 供应链协同

  [摘要]研究目标:探讨互联网技术在中国制造业中发挥的作用。研究方法:利用2012年世界银行对中国制造业企业的调查数据进行多元回归分析。研究发现:互联网的使用推动了我国制造业的创新活动,提高了制造业供应链上下游企业之间的信息分享意愿,且其本身也可以作为一种高效的商品销售和营销渠道在制造业当中发挥作用,并带来制造业绩效表现的提升。研究创新:实证检验了互联网使用对我国制造业的影响,为“互联网+制造业”战略的效果提供了更加全面细致的经验证据。研究价值:提供了“互联网+”促进经济增长的微观证据,为传统企业的互联网转型以及信息化与工业化的“两化”融合问题带来启示。

  [项目]本文获得国家社科基金项目(15BJY044)的资助。

  Empirical Study on the Impact of “Internet +”on Chinese Manufacturing Industry

  Abstract: Research Objectives: This article explores the impact of internet technology on Chinese manufacturing industry. Research Methods: This paper makes a multiple linear regression analysis based on the survey data of Chinese manufacturing firms conducted by The World Bank in 2011. Research Findings: The results indicate that internet using promote innovation activities of Chinese manufacturing industry, increase the will to share information with companies up and down the supply chain of manufacturing industry, and have a role in manufacturing industry with itself being an effective channel for commodity sell and marketing, thus increasing the performance of manufacturing industry. Research Innovations: This paper empirically examines the impact of internet using on Chinese manufacturing industry and provides more comprehensive and detailed evidence on the effect of The “Internet + Manufacturing Industry”. Research Value: The study provides micro evidence for “internet +” promoting economic growth, and brings enlightenment for traditional firms’ internet transformation and the amalgamation of informatization and industrialization.

       Key Words: Internet +” Manufacturing Industry Innovation Supply Chain Collaboration

  2.金融发展与产业结构转型

  [关键词]金融发展 金融深化 金融结构 结构转型

  [摘要]研究目标:金融发展对产业结构转型的影响。研究方法:构建纳入金融因素的非平衡增长理论模型,并基于1981~2010年的跨国面板数据进行实证检验。研究发现:金融发展通过加快现代部门技术创新推动资源从工业部门配置到服务业部门来促进产业结构转型,但由于金融发展对技术创新的影响最终会进入边际报酬递减阶段,其对产业结构转型的正向影响会伴随产业发展阶段上升而呈倒“U”形关系;金融深化和市场主导型金融结构均能显著促进工业向服务业结构转型,市场主导型金融结构对结构转型的影响系数会随服务业与工业增加值比值的演进而呈倒“U”形关系,其拐点发生在服务业与工业增加值比值1.3附近。研究创新:拓展非平衡增长理论模型,构建包含金融因素的理论模型探讨传导机制;结合金融发展对产业结构转型影响的非线性特征,综合采用多种计量方法进行实证分析。研究价值:论证了加快金融体系发展有助于产业结构转型,并存在与产业结构相匹配的最优金融结构,指出我国目前的市场主导型金融结构已接近效率拐点,因而中长期的金融发展政策应以提升金融效率为主,调整金融结构为辅。

  [作者]易信,国家发展和改革委员会宏观经济研究院;刘凤良,中国人民大学经济学院

  [基金项目]本文获得国家社科基金重点项目“中高速增长阶段收入分配调整与产业结构升级研究”(14AZD019)的资助。

  Financial Development and Structure Transformation

  Abstract:Research Objectives: This paper is to discover the effect of financial development to structure transformation. Research Methods: This paper proposes a structural transformation model incorporating financial factors, and does empirical test based on the cross-country panel data from 1981 to 2010. Research Findings: Financial development promotes structure transformation by accelerating technological innovation of modern sector. However, as for the impact of financial development on innovation would enter the stage of diminishing returns, the positive effect of financial development on structure transformation would be inverted U-shaped as the evolution of the industrial development. Empirical analysis shows that the financial deepening and market-oriented financial structure promote structure transformation significantly, and the influence of the market-oriented financial structure on structure transformation would be inverted U-shaped as the evolution of the ratio of service and industrial added value, whose inflection point occurs near the ratio 1.3. Research Innovations: This paper expands unbalanced growth model to propose a structural transformation model incorporating financial factors to explore the theoretical mechanism. According to the non-linear effects between financial development and structure transformation, this paper does robustness empirical analysis using multiple econometrical methods. Research Value: This paper shows that financial development is conducive to the structure transformation, but there is an optimal financial structure to match the industrial structure also. As China‘s current market-oriented financial structure is close to the efficiency inflection point, which indicates that China‘s financial development policy should be to enhance financial efficiency and supplemented by adjusting financial structure in the future.

        Key Words:Financial Development Financial Deepening Financial Structure Structure Transformation

  3.最低工资制度如何影响中国的产业结构?

  [关键词]最低工资 产业结构 结构性就业效应

  [摘要]研究目标:从就业视角考察最低工资制度对中国产业结构的影响。研究方法:基于企业“就业创造”率和家庭“就业接受”率的双重视角,利用拓展搜寻模型探讨最低工资制度如何通过企业生产率和工资水平转变产业结构,并采用1998~2013年251个地级市面板数据开展实证检验。研究发现:最低工资标准提升有利于工业发展,但不利于农业和服务业的发展,农业抑制效应和工业增长效应主要体现在经济落后地区和经济发达地区,而服务业抑制效应在所有地区均有体现,且最低工资制度对于产业内部的结构变迁具有一定解释力。研究创新:拓展搜寻模型为考察最低工资制度的经济效应提供理论框架,并证实最低工资标准提升存在显著的结构性就业效应。研究价值:有助于深入理解最低工资制度在产业结构转型中的重要性。

  [作者]刘贯春,华中科技大学管理学院;吴辉航,上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院;刘媛媛,复旦大学经济学院。

  [基金项目]本文得到国家自然科学基金重点项目“推动经济发达地区产业转型升级的机制与政策研究”(71333002)、国家社会科学基金重大项目“我国经济发展新常态的趋势性特征及政策取向研究”(15ZDA008)及“文化名家暨四个一批”人才项目“中国的产业转型与就业变化:理论与经验研究”的资助。

  How Does Minimum Wage Affect Industrial Structure?

  Abstract:Research Objective:Investigates the effects of minimum wage on industrial structure viewed through employment.Research Methods:From a two-sided perspective of firms’ job offer and workers’ job acceptance,this paper employs an extended search model to assess how minimum wage affects industrial structure through firm’s productivity and wag,and then conduct empirical analysis using the statistical data of 251 Chinese cities from 1998 to 2013.Research Findings: Increasing minimum wage promotes the development of industry sector while goes against the development of agriculture and service sectors, and there is some explanatory power from minimum wage to structural change.In particular, the effects on agriculture and industry manifest in the backward and developed regions, while that on service exists in all regions.Research Innovations: This paper builds a theoretical framework for discussing the economic effects of minimum wage, and verifies a significant structural employment effect of minimum wage.Research Value:This paper provides some useful insights for the role of minimum wage in industrial structure transformation.  

          Key Words:Minimum Wage Industrial Structure Structural Employment Effect

  4.中国P2P网贷平台效率差异及成交量影响因素研究

  [摘要] 研究目标:中国P2P网贷平台的效率水平、规模经济及成交量的影响因素。研究方法:采用DEA-Mamquist方法从地区和类型两个维度来测度P2P网贷平台全要素生产率、规模经济及效率差异。利用2014年1月~2017年11月地区、类型及代表性平台的面板数据实证检验影响中国P2P网贷平台成交量的因素,并运用双重差分法来测度银行存管对成交量的政策冲击效应。研究发现:P2P网贷行业不具备规模经济,规模大小对全要素生产率的影响不明显,技术进步是推动全要素生产率增长的主要因素,行业整体效率较低。具有双边市场性质的P2P网贷行业市场集中度提高,不但不会引起垄断带来的明显效率损失,而且会显著提高行业整体效率和技术进步。平台数量、综合利率、平均借款期限与成交量之间呈显著负相关关系,当月投资人数、当月借款人数与成交量之间呈显著的正相关关系,双边网络外部性效应明显。银行存管政策能显著地抑制成交量,降低行业风险。研究创新:不局限于P2P网贷行业短期内的风险防控问题,从产业组织视角对长期中如何提升平台经营效率和实现行业有效竞争进行系统研究。研究价值:有针对性地提出中国P2P网贷平台提高经营效率和成交量,实现有效竞争的政策启示。

  [关键词]P2P 网贷 效率差异 成交量 双重差分法

  [作者]姜琪,山东财经大学公共管理学院

  [基金项目]本文获得国家社会科学基金青年项目(16CJY077)的资助。

  Research on the Efficiency Difference and the Influencing Factors of the Volume of P2P Loan Platform in China

  Abstract:Research Objectives:The efficiency level,economies of scale and the factors affecting the volume of P2P loan platform in China.Research Methods:The DEA-Mamquist method is used to measure the total factor productivity of P2P loan platform and the difference of scale economy and efficiency from two dimensions of region and type.Based on the panel data from January 2014 to November 2017,we empirically test the factors that affect the volume of P2P loan platform in China,and use difference-in-differences method to measure the policy impact effect of bank depository on volume.Research Findings:P2P loan industry does not have scale economy,and the impact of scale on TFP is not obvious.Technological progress is the main factor to promote TFP growth,and the efficiency of the industry is low.The market concentration of P2P loan industry with two sided market nature will not only cause significant loss of efficiency due to monopoly,but also significantly improve the overall efficiency and technological progress of the industry.There is a significant negative correlation between the number of platform,the comprehensive interest rate,the average loan term and the volume.There is a significant positive correlation between the number of investment,the number of borrowers and the volume,and the external effect of the bilateral network is obvious.The bank deposit management policy can significantly reduce the volume and reduce the industry risk.Research Innovations:It is not limited to the risk prevention and control problems in the P2P loan industry in the short run.From the perspective of industrial organization,we need to systematically study how to enhance platform operation efficiency and achieve effective competition in the long run.Research Value:put forward the P2P loan platform in China to improve the management efficiency and volume,to achieve effective competition policy inspiration.

  Key Words: P2P Loan Efficiency Difference Volume DID  

  5.中国国有和民营制造业企业生产效率对比研究

  [摘要]研究目标:测算中国国有和民营制造业上市企业2009~2014年的生产效率,并且进行对比分析。研究方法:采用数据包络分析(DEA)模型和随机前沿分析(SFA)模型结合的三阶段DEA模型。研究发现:在剔除环境因素以及随机误差干扰的影响后,测算得到国有制造业企业平均综合效率为0.685,民营企业平均综合效率为0.722,这表明民营制造业企业技术效率相较于国有企业有微弱优势。另外,在纯技术效率方面,民营企业占据较大优势,比国有企业高7.3%,而国有企业在规模效率上占有优势,较民营企业高2.8%。研究创新:采用了“经济附加值”作为衡量企业有效产出的财务指标,利用三阶段DEA模型方法剔除环境因素及随机干扰因素对企业生产行为的影响,测算了国有和民营企业真实的生产效率。研究价值:测算对比了我国国有和民营制造业企业生产效率之间的差异,并分析了造成差异的原因,为企业改进生产效率提供指导建议。

  [关键词]国有企业 民营企业 技术效率 三阶段DEA

  [作者]张涛,中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所;刘宽斌,中国社会科学院研究生院;熊雪,中国农业科学院农业信息研究所。

  [基金项目]本文获得国家自然科学基金面上项目(71673077)、教育部人文社科研究青年基金项目(15YJC790027)、湖南省社科基金一般项目(16YBA062)的资助。

  Study on Efficiency Differences between Chinese National and Private Manufacturing Enterprises

  Abstract: Research Objectives:This paper is to calculate the production efficiency of listed state-owned and private-owned manufacturing enterprises in China from 2009 to 2014, and make a comparative analysis. Research Methods: Three-Stages DEA model is used to calculate production efficiency of listed state-owned and private-owned manufacturing enterprises. Research Findings: Based on the removal of effecting from environmental factors and random errors, this paper estimates that the average comprehensive efficiency of state-owned manufacturing enterprises is 0.685 and the average comprehensive efficiency of private enterprises is 0.722, indicating that the technological efficiency of private manufacturing enterprises has a slight advantage over state-owned enterprises. In addition, it is found that in terms of pure technical efficiency, private enterprises accounted for a big advantage, 7.3% more than that of state-owned enterprises. However, state-owned enterprises had an advantage in terms of scale efficiency, 2.8% higher than that of private enterprises. Research Innovations: Economic Value Added is adopted as the financial index to measure the output of the enterprise. The Three-Stages DEA model is adopted to eliminate the influence of environmental factors and stochastic factors on the production behavior of the enterprise, and the real production efficiency of the state-owned and private enterprises are measured. Research Value: The efficiency differences between the state-owned and private-owned manufacturing enterprises in China are calculated and compared, and the reasons for the differences are analyzed, providing guidance for enterprises to improve production efficiency

  Key Words: State-Owned Enterprises Private-Owned Enterprises Efficiency Three-Stage DEA  

  6.地方政府债务风险非线性先导预警系统的构建与应用研究

  [摘要]研究目标:构建地方政府债务风险非线性先导预警系统。研究方法:运用TOPSIS-AHP法和K-均值聚类法测算我国2006~2016年30个省份地方政府债务综合风险输出评估样本值,运用噪声信号比法进行预警输入指标的精简筛选,然后将预警输入和输出样本数据导入GA-BP神经网络中开展债务风险预警的训练和检验。研究发现:将前置一年的预警输入指标样本值输入构建的GA-BP神经网络中,预警系统的风险输出值平均误差为-0.0375,输出风险状态区间判断的准确率为93.33%,构建的债务风险预警系统具有较强的精确性和先导预警性。研究创新:借鉴“非线性先导法”的预警思想,从债务运行的“举借—使用—偿还”环节出发,基于风险链视角设计了地方政府债务风险预警指标体系,在此基础上,利用软计算方法集成技术来构建符合地方政府债务风险非线性本质的先导预警系统。研究价值:运用构建的债务风险非线性先导预警系统开展我国“十三五”时期地方政府债务风险预测评估,据此提出有针对性的地方政府债务风险的防范化解建议。

  [关键词]地方政府 债务风险 预警系统 噪声信号比 神经网络

  [作者]洪源,湖南大学经济与贸易学院;王群群,湖南大学经济与贸易学院;苏知立,湖南省财政厅预算处

  [基金项目]本文获得教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“我国农村普惠金融发展的空间差异及调控对策研究”(15YJC790011),以及山东省社科联人文社会科学课题、山东经济社会发展委托课题"振兴山东实体经济推进供给侧结构性改革研究"(17-JS-12)的资助。

  Construction and Applied Research of Local Government Debt Risk Nonlinear Early-warning Systems

  Abstract: Research Objectives:The construction of local government debt risk non-linear pilot early warning system. Research Methods: The TOPSIS-AHP method and K-MEANS clustering method are used to measure the output sample values of local government debt risk, the noise signal ratio method is used to streamline the parameters of the early warning input. The early warning input and output sample data are imported into the GA-BP neural network of the core early warning model to carry out the training and inspection of debt risk early warning. Research Findings: The first year of early warning input is entered into the constructed GA-BP neural network. The mean error of the risk output value of the early warning system is -0.03756 and the accuracy of the output risk state interval is 93.33%,so the establishment of the debt risk early warning system has the full accuracy. Research Innovations: Drawing the warning idea of “nonlinear lead method”, beginning form the “borrowing-use-repayment” of the local government debt operation, the index system of the local government debt risk nonlinear pilot is designed. Using soft computing method integration technology to construct an early warning system for the non-linear nature of government debt risk. Research Value: Using early warning system in the local government debt risk, the research carries out the risk forecast of local government debt during the 13th five-year plan period and puts forward effective measures to prevent the risk of local government debt.

  Key Words: Local Government Debt Risk Early Warning System Noise Signal Ratio Neural Network  

  7.人民币短期均衡汇率测算方法及应用研究

  [摘要]研究目标:设定一套短期均衡汇率的测算方法并对中国短期均衡汇率进行测算。研究方法:在区分数学均衡和经济均衡的条件下,将计量经济状态空间模型方法与非线性规划方法相结合建立混合模型。研究发现:世界各国汇率政策更加关注短期均衡,如果人民币汇率能够达到短期均衡,与汇率相关的各项经济指标都将得到改善。研究创新:给出了短期均衡汇率的理论概念和定义,提出了短期均衡汇率模型的设计思想,构建了包括一套计量模型和一套优化模型在内的分层嵌套的多目标条件下短期均衡汇率最优化模型(MOER)并加以应用。研究价值:本文的研究有助于推动短期均衡汇率理论的发展,完善短期均衡汇率的测算方法,MOER模型可为我国政府汇率决策提供参考。

  [关键词]短期均衡汇率 一篮子指数 多目标优化

  [作者]刘洋,山西财经大学统计学院

  [基金项目]本文获得国家社科基金项目“中国货币政策国际联动量化决策方法与模型研究”(17CGL010)的资助。

  Measurement Method and Applied Research of RMB Short-term Equilibrium Exchange Rate

  Abstract: Research Objectives: This paper sets up a set of short-term equilibrium exchange rate measurement method, and calculates the short-term equilibrium exchange rate of China. Research Methods: Under the condition of distinguishing mathematical equilibrium and economic equilibrium, a hybrid model is established by combining the econometric method of state space model with the nonlinear programming method. Research Findings: The exchange rate policy in the world pays more attention to the short-term equilibrium.If the RMB exchange rate can reach the short-term equilibrium, the economic indicators related to the exchange rate will be improved. Research Innovations: This paper gives the theoretical concept and definition of short-term equilibrium exchange rate, puts forward the idea of short-term equilibrium exchange rate model, and cunstructs the multi-objective equilibrium exchange rate model which includes a set of econometric model and optimization model. Research Value: This paper will help to promote the development of short-term equilibrium exchange rate theory and improve the measurement method of short-term equilibrium exchange rate.The MOER model can provide reference for the government‘s exchange rate decision-making in our country.

  Key Words: Short-term Equilibrium Exchange Rate A Basket of Indices Multi-Objective Optimization  

  8.基于投入产出表的隐含问题计算方法辨析

  [摘要]研究目标:辨析最终需求隐含问题主要计算方法的准确性。研究方法:先通过模型推导辨析文献方法的准确性,再以中国为例实证分析文献方法及本文新法的准确性,最后使用对数平均迪氏分解法(LMDI)进行因素分解研究。研究发现:先计算最终需求引致的产出值,再将直接强度系数与引致的产出值相乘,来计算行业或部门最终需求中隐含问题的方法存在逻辑错误,因此是错误的计算方法。绿色生产技术效率变化效应是中国增加值出口中碳排放强度下降的主要因素,中国增加值出口占出口值份额总体呈下降趋势。研究创新:辨析了目前最常用方法中的错误,提出了更简便、更易理解的新方法。研究价值:避免隐含问题研究继续由错误思路方法计算出无意义的错误结果。

  [关键词]投入产出表 隐含问题 计算方法研究

  [作者]傅智宏,云南大学发展研究院

  [基金项目]本文获得国家自然科学基金项目“不确定环境下我国沿边经济区企业行为与企业聚集研究”(71362026)的资助。

  Method Analysis of Implicit Issue Calculation Based on Input-output Table

  Abstract: Research Objectives: Analyzing final demand implicit issue calculation main method‘s accuracy. Research Methods:Deriving implicit issue calculation method in final demend based on the principle of input-output table and leontief inverse matrix,Using the derived method to calculate China‘s value-added exports and implied carbon intensity,Using LMDI to do intensity change factor decomposition. Research Findings:The method through direct strength coeffcient multiply the output value which induced by final demend value is wrong. China's value-added exports embodied carbon emission intensity decreased obviously during 1995~2009 ,which caused mainly by green production technical efficiency change. The domestic added-value share in export value also assumes overall downward trend from 1995 to 2011. Research Innovations:Analyzing errors in the most common literature method and presenting new calculation method. Research Value:Avoiding continuing errors in future reseach of final demend embodied issue.

  Key Words: Input-output Table Implicit Issue Calculation Method Study

  9.基于完全信息的测算信用等级违约概率的新方法

  [摘要]研究目标:为充分利用历史数据的信息测算违约概率提供一种新方法。研究方法:从违约强度与违约概率的关系出发,提出计算违约概率的新思想。以银行贷款为例,在分析贷款的起止时间与违约概率考察期间的时序关系之后,通过创新性地构造特征函数的方式,描述了考察期间贷款数目的时变特征,提出了利用历史数据测算违约概率的公式。研究发现:传统的测算方法对违约概率存在一定程度的低估。研究创新:采用该方法测算违约概率时,考察期间的任何一笔贷款都是潜在的测算样本的数据源。相比于传统方法中“只选择在考察期初存在的贷款作为测算样本”的做法,本文的方法利用历史违约数据的信息更完全。研究价值:为基于历史数据测算违约概率提供了新思路,研究成果可广泛用于银行贷款的违约概率的测算。

  [关键词]违约概率 违约强度 信用评级

  [作者]张金宝,北京第二外国语学院国际商学院

  [基金项目]本文获得国家社会科学基金“存款保险定价的理论建模与实证研究”(14BJY199)的资助。  

  International Business School, Beijing International Studies University

  Abstract: Research Objectives:Present a new method of calculating default probability by making a full use of historical data. Research Methods: After analyzing relationship between default intensity and default probability, this paper provides a new way of estimating default probability. Specifically, this paper discusses the temporal relation between the beginning and ending time of loan and inspection horizon of the measuring PD, then proposes a characteristic function to construct a function for describing the time-varied number the loan, and presents a new formula of estimating default probability. Research Findings: By an empirical study, we find there is an underestimation of default probability in traditional methods. Research Innovations: Using this method, any loan appeared in the inspection horizon can be sampled from historical data and used for calculating default probability. Compared with the traditional methods, this method can make full use of the information implied in historical data and has more practical application value. Research Value: This paper gives a new way of calculating probability of default. It can be widely used in the practice of risk management of commercial banks.

  Key Words: The External Managers Market Reputation Mechanism Internal Governance Earnings’ Management  

作者简介

姓名:《数量经济技术经济研究》编辑部 工作单位:

转载请注明来源:中国社会科学网 (责编:张文齐)
W020180116412817190956.jpg
用户昵称:  (您填写的昵称将出现在评论列表中)  匿名
 验证码 
所有评论仅代表网友意见
最新发表的评论0条,总共0 查看全部评论

回到频道首页
QQ图片20180105134100.jpg
jrtt.jpg
wxgzh.jpg
777.jpg
内文页广告3(手机版).jpg
中国社会科学院概况|中国社会科学杂志社简介|关于我们|法律顾问|广告服务|网站声明|联系我们